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Optimistic & Pessimistic Outlooks for Each Team

Why each team's 2025 season could be great, and why each team's season could turn into a trainwreck.

Optimistic & Pessimistic Outlooks for Each Team
U.S. Space Force SBD1 by Dalton Prejeant, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

American Athletic Conference

Army

Optimist: The schedule's softer than a fresh cadet’s first salute. Seven opponents ranked in the 100s in ESPN's preseason FPI, and an FCS cupcake? That’s practically a government issued bowl bid. Especially with Jeff Monken who could coach a toaster to 6 wins.

Pessimist: No Bryson Daily, no Kanye Udoh, no clue who’s carrying the rock. At a service academy where cohesion and continuity are everything, I'd be as nervous as the countries facing these guys after college if I had money on this team to do what they did last year.

Charlotte

Optimist: In 10 years Charlotte has 29 wins against FBS competition. New coach Tim Albin has 28 wins over FBS competition in the last 3 years at Ohio. A different class of coach than fans are used to for this program will bring a different level of winning as well.

Pessimist: The schedule's brutal, the offense is basically starting from scratch with only 1 returning starter, year one might look more like a construction site than a comeback. Progress? Maybe. Wins? Don’t hold your breath.

East Carolina

Optimist: Blake Harrell took the wheel midseason, slapped some duct tape on the Pirates, and somehow steered them to a 5–1 finish. With his QB back and some momentum in their sails, ECU may be ready to plunder the American.

Pessimist: Nine starters gone on defense, a portal haul that barely cracked the top ten in the conference, and their schedule starts with @NC State, @Coastal, BYU, Army, and @Tulane in the first 6 weeks of the season. A slow start could be in store.

Florida Atlantic

Optimist: FAU brings in an upstart OC of a top 5 scoring offense to be the new head coach. Then pair him with a 3000 yard passer and 800 yard receiver that played together last season. Expect these Owl's to soar.

Pessimist: The last time an FAU coach won over 5 games in a season outside of the Lane Kiffin years was Howard Schnellenberger before Obama took office. Maybe the Kiffin years were an exception, and not a sign of greater potential.

Memphis

Optimist: Coming off back to back 10 win seasons, Silverfield is bringing in the top portal class in the conference to ensure this is a reload and not a rebuild. Based on preseason metrics, they'll be favored in 10 of their games this season.

Pessimist: Being “pretty good but not quite good enough” is basically the Silverfield special. And now he's doing it without the school’s all time passing leader? If history holds, expect Memphis to flirt with greatness, then trip over its own cleats in November.

Navy

Optimist: At the academies, continuity is gold and Navy’s basically swimming in it. Top three rushers? Back. Top three receivers? Back. Blake Horvath? Absolutely back. With 10 wins and a top 40 scoring offense last year, they’re not just stable. They’re dangerous.

Pessimist: The defense lost its teeth: top tacklers, ball hawks, and sack leader all gone. Sure, the offense might hum, but if the defense springs leaks, Navy’s conference title hopes might sink faster than a dropped anchor.

North Texas

Optimist: Eric Morris has posted a top 25 scoring offense each year in Denton. Now they get a managable OOC slate as well as miss Memphis, Tulane, and East Carolina in conference. Their 3 toughest conference games (USF, UTSA, and Navy) all come at home as well.

Pessimist: They have finished with a winning record just 3 times in the last 20 years, and none in the last 6. They have had one of the worst defenses in college football each year since joining the American. Good offense, bad defense, mediocre record. Rinse, repeat.

Rice

Optimist: Rice is bringing triple option chaos to the American, and it's not your granddad’s version either. This system has flipped bottom feeders before, and in year one, it’s all about confusion. Defenses won't know what hit them. Don’t be shocked if Rice sneaks up and ruins a few Saturdays.

Pessimist: EJ Warner and Dean Connors was as good of a QB/RB combo as you can get at a school like Rice, and they lost both to the portal. Pair that with the worst portal class in the conference and this Rice may be more the boil in a bag variety than sushi grade.

South Florida

Optimist: Golesh took over a program with 4 total wins in 3 years before him. Year 1: 7-6 and the #1 G5 high school recruiting class. Year 2: 7-6 with a backup QB and the #2 G5 high school recruiting class. Year 3: A healthy QB and those blue chippers start to crack the lineup? Very high ceiling.

Pessimist: Byrum Brown looked more “meh” than magic last year, and the Bulls open with a triple shot of Boise, Florida, and Miami. If they start 0–3, this might go from “year of the leap” to “year of the letdown” before conference play even kicks off.

Temple

Optimist: The new coach could be a dissapointment and still win more than Stan Drayton did here. KC Keeler just led Sam Houston to a 10 win season in their second year at the FBS level last year, and is now bringing in the #3 portal class of the AAC.

Pessimist: Three wins is basically their ceiling since before COVID, and you don’t flip that overnight with duct tape and transfer hopes. Recruiting’s been bleak, depth is thinner than a cheesesteak wrapper, and this rebuild might need more than just one offseason and a new headset.

Tulane

Optimist: Athlon Sport's annual unit rankings give Tulane the #1 oline and #1 dline in the conference. A Jon Sumrall team thats absolutely nasty in the trenches? The floor here is still one of the top teams in the G5.

Pessimist: They lose Darian Mensah who was top 10 nationally in passer rating and Makhi Hughes who was top 10 nationally in rushing yards. The offense may struggle to find their groove, while they get 3 P4 teams in the first 4 weeks.

Tulsa

Optimist: New coach Tre Lamb took over Gardner Webb when they had 6 losing seasons in a row, and made the FCS playoffs in years 3 and 4. Then took over ETSU after back-to-back 3 win seasons, and immediately won 7 in year 1. The young man can coach.

Pessimist: There is not much talent on this roster, ESPN's preseason FPI has them as the #130 team in the country and last in the conference. Now you have a 35 year old leading the way whose never been an assistant or player at the FBS level...good luck.

UAB

Optimist: The Blazers return QB Jalen Kitna who can sling it. If you extrapolated his 8 games of stats to a full season he would have put up 3300 yards and 25 touchdowns. If he can cut down on the turnovers this offense could be fiesty.

Pessimist: There have been some signs of this team quitting on Coach Dilfer when they get down, if year 3 starts off similar to the first 2 the bottom could absolutely drop out this season forcing the program to hit the reset button. On second thought that may not be the worst thing...

UTSA

Optimist: You could make a solid argument this team has the best QB and best coach in the conference, that can cover up for a lot of flaws elsewhere. The Roadrunners also return their leading rusher and receiver. This should be the best offense of the G5.

Pessimist: In 2024 they had the #10 high school class in the conference, in 2025 they had the #7 high school class in the conference. With NIL being such a large factor now, can they keep replenishing the talent on this roster to keep up with expectations?

Conference USA

Delaware

Optimist: Bill Connelley ranks the top 764 teams from all levels of college football, and Delaware made an appearance in the top 100 last season. Better than almost every Conference USA team. The Blue Hens could immediately be a top 5 team in CUSA this year.

Pessimist: Their schedule includes the top 7 teams in the conference last season, and misses 2 of the bottom 3. Throw in 2 P4 road trips and a game vs a UConn team coming off 9 wins, a first year FBS team likely doesn't have the depth for this schedule.

Florida International

Optimist: FAMU had 6 consecutive losing seasons, then Willie Simmons took over and went 45-13 over 5 years. The man can straight up coach and had plenty of experience in the Florida area. FIU will turnaround in his tenure, we'll see if that starts this year.

Pessimist: The Panthers went 4-8 against the 133rd strength of schedule last season and the receiver who accounted for 28% of your entire offense transferred out. It will be an uphill battle to 6 wins against a tougher schedule this season.

Jacksonville State

Optimist: The Gamecocks have won 9 games each year at the FBS level so far. This year they brought in the #2 portal class in the conference. While they may take a step back without Rich Rod they still have a top 5 roster in the CUSA.

Pessimist: The QB, leading rusher, leading reciever, leading tackler, and coach from last years team are all gone. The new head man has zero head coaching experience, we wouldn't be shocked to see a slow start as they figure things out.

Kennesaw State

Optimist: New coach Jerry Mack was the HC for an HBCU for 4 years where they went 26-6 in conference. Since then he's been an assistant in the SEC and NFL, it'll be hard for him to do any worse than last year.

Pessimist: They finished last and next to last in high school recruiting each of the last 2 years. You just fired the only head coach you've ever had, so there will be issues figuring out how to manage the program without him. This could get real ugly.

Liberty

Optimist: Jamey Chadwell teams have been top 60 in offense and top 60 in defense 4 of the last 5 years. Every year they win 8+ games and have a dynamic run game. We see no reason for that to change this year. The Flames are the class of this conference.

Pessimist: A step back was taken last season. They had to come back from 2 scores in the 4th quarter to beat NMSU, and went to OT with FIU and UMass. They finished 3-4 down the stretch including a loss to 2 win Kennesaw, then lost their QB to the portal in the offseason.

Louisiana Tech

Optimist: Bulldogs fans have to be pumped this team is officially moving to the Sun Belt. Last year they went 5-7 in the regular season, but 5 of those losses were by 1 score. More luck in close games could result in a few extra wins this year.

Pessimist: One of the worst offenses in college football last season lost its top 2 receivers. The strength of schedule also appears to be about 20 ranking spots tougher this season than last.

Middle Tennessee State

Optimist: Derek Mason won 3 games in his first year as head coach, but the team is #46 in returning production nationally. With the projected 134th ranked strength of schedule a bowl game is possible if things break right.

Pessimist: This is one of the worst rosters in college football. New Mexico State and the FCS game are likely the only ones where they will be favored. Bottom 15 in offense and defense last year, every team circles them as a win in the preseason.

Missouri State

Optimist: The only teams they lost to last season were FCS playoff teams and Ball State, and they are #18 in the country in returning production on offense. Their conference schedule is just the bottom 8 finishers last season, a chance to win some games in their FBS debut.

Pessimist: With only 6 winning seasons in the 21st century, they really weren't even that good of a program in the FCS. Now you're bringing on even tougher competition? It'll likely be a long road to relevency, that doesn't include winning a bunch in 2025.

New Mexico State

Optimist: A nonconference slate including Bryant, Tulsa, and New Mexico provides an opportunity to pick up some wins. They ranked 40th in rushing offense last year, if they can improve upon that in year 2 of Coach Sanchez's tenure they may have something to build off of.

Pessimist: Every advanced stat metric has this as one of the worst teams in college football. Coming off 17 wins in the previous two years, Tony Sanchez sapped all the momentum year 1 leading this team to 3-9. The arrow is pointed down here.

Sam Houston

Optimist: In the last 14 years the Bearkats have 9 double digit win seasons, including last year. Phil Longo takes over here, a disciple of the Mike Leach offense he may be one of the better schematic minds in Conference USA.

Pessimist: They are #116 in returning talent and pulled in the #7 portal class of the conference. If they weren't in such a weak conference they'd be projected to be horrible. They will likely be underdogs in all 4 of their out of conference matchups.

UTEP

Optimist: Skyler Locklear returns after flashing some potential at QB last year, and they bring back two receivers that had 500+ yards last season as well. With 10 games against teams ranked lower than 100 in the preseason FPI, if the passing game progresses they could be frisky.

Pessimist: The defense was already one of the worst in football, but they had two pass rushers that each had 7+ sacks. Both hit the portal, which leaves us wondering how they are going to stop anyone this season.

Western Kentucky

Optimist: The floor at Western Kentucky under Tyson Helton seems to be 8 wins, and this year he may be pushing his chips into the table. According to 247 they are bringing in the #6 portal class in the G5, ahead of Tulane. 11-1 with an outside shot at the playoffs is on the table.

Pessimist: At #123 in returning production they really need that transfer portal class to workout or else things could get ugly. The starting QB, top 3 leaders in scrimmage yards, and coordinators are all gone. That is a lot of new to mesh in one year.

Independent & PAC-2

Oregon State

Optimist: The Beavers went 5-7 last year while their QB's combined for 7 TD's and 11 picks. Insert Maalik Murphy, who threw for 3000 yards and 26 TD's last season. If they can pair that passing game with Hankerson's dominance on the ground they could be a top G5 team.

Pessimist: Last year you went 2-5 against Mountain West teams. The good news is you only play 1 this year, the bad? You get 5 P4 teams, Washington State twice, and App State. They could be improved and still see no difference in the win column.

UConn

Optimist: Jim Mora seems to have things moving in the right direction with 2 bowl appearances in 3 years, including last seasons 9 win exclamation point. Every game on the schedule this year is winnable, if they get past Syracuse week 2 they could be a playoff sleeper.

Pessimist: Last season down the stretch the Huskies eeked out wins vs Rice, Georgia State, UAB, and UMass all by 1 score. Was that due to a lack of depth, teams figuring them out schematically, or something else? They have to figure that out if they want to take the next step.

Washington State

Optimist: They started last season 8-1 before losing 3 straight games by a field goal or less to end the year. They now bring in a coach with a 27-3 career record, along with an FCS national championship. A top 50 SP+ offense should be enough to roll most the schedule.

Pessimist: New coach Jimmy Rogers has one of my bigger coaching red flags: he's only seen it done at one place. He played for South Dakota State and except for 1 year as a GA thats the only place he's coached. When what worked there doesn't work here...good luck Cougars.

Mid-American Conference

Akron

Optimist: In Joe Moorhead's 3rd season Arkon won 3 conference games for the first time in 6 seasons. In fact, they went 3-2 to end the year. Coach had a winning record in 2 years at Mississippi State, its possible he's turning the corner and the Zips see a bowl this year.

Pessimist: They lose a lot from last years roster that helped them win those games, and they are one of the worst recruiting schools in the MAC. This isn't a reload situation, but rather one of the hope and pray variety.

Ball State

Optimist: After winning fewer games than the year before for 4 seasons in a row they finally get some fresh blood leading the program. Mike Uremovich took over a Butler program coming off 4 straight losing seasons, and never did worse than 7-4.

Pessimist: One of the worst teams in the country in returning production stings a little extra when the team already sucked with all those guys. Semonza was a genuine bright spot at quarterback, but hit the portal. The ceiling feels like 3 wins with this roster.

Bowling Green

Optimist: Coming off 3 straight bowl games, new coach Eddie George is bringing the #1 portal class in the MAC with him to take the next step. They dodge Miami and Northern Illinois, and get Toledo at home. There is a path to the conference title game.

Pessimist: Scott Loeffler made three straight bowls for the 2nd time in your programs history and you fire him!? You may have kicked off a rebuild, because now you are in the bottom 10 of returning production. Good luck.

Buffalo

Optimist: Pete Lembo wasted no time in year 1 going 9-4, 6 more wins than the season before. They return a 1000 yard rusher, a 650 yard receiver, and a 9.5 sack pass rusher. A genuine contender for the MAC conference championship this year.

Pessimist: The QB has to be replaced, which at this level can be a real crapshoot. ESPN's FPI really hates this roster, ranking it as the 3rd worst in the MAC in their preseason poll.

Central Michigan

Optimist: The McElwain experiment is finally over and the Chippewas are replacing him with an oline guru who led a G5 team to be named best oline in college football for the first time ever last season. Nasty in the trenches can carry you to a bowl in the MAC.

Pessimist: They have finished #9 and #12 in MAC high school recruiting the last 2 years after being #3 the 2 before. The talent is only getting worse on this roster, and that could be a red flag they are lagging behind their peers in NIL.

Eastern Michigan

Optimist: The Eagles high school recruiting rankings the last 3 years within the MAC: #2, #5, and #2. Has Maxx Crosby been sending some change to the collective? Regardless, that talent infusion should start paying dividends this season.

Pessimist: All predictive analytics seem to hate this team, even within the context of the MAC. After making 5 bowls in 6 years, Chris Creighton's team seemed to take a step back last year going 2-6 in the MAC.

Kent State

Optimist: It can't be any worse than Kenni Burns 1-23 two year run, right? Transfer QB CJ Montes threw for 3000 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 1 INT in 2023 at Fordham. That includes a 309 yard 5 touchdown performance vs Buffalo, so we know he can sling it against the MAC.

Pessimist: After going 0-12 with the worst offense in football they'll now have that OC running things as the interim head coach this year. This is the worst roster in the FBS and its not even close. We could see back to back donuts in the record book.

UMass

Optimist: A new coach and the largest NIL budget in the MAC has vegas setting the win total over/under higher than they've ever reached in the FBS. There are 6 teams on the schedule ranked lower than them in ESPN's FPI. Could a bowl be on the table?

Pessimist: SP+ projects this team to have the second worst defense in college football. Not being able to stop anyone could squander improvements in recruiting, fixing a defense this bad doesn't happen overnight.

Miami (Ohio)

Optimist: Chuck Martin has built one of the more consistent programs in the MAC over the past decade, and now in the last two seasons they've gone 7-1 in conference. The #2 portal class in conference should help the Redhawks remain on their perch.

Pessimist: They lost a lot of talent to graduation and the portal, ranking last in the FBS in returning production on offense. They open the season on the road at Wisconsin and Rutgers before facing off against UNLV. 0-3 is on the table which could be hard to crawl out of.

Northern Illinois

Optimist: The Huskies are coming off back to back seasons with winning records and bowl victories. 9 of their 11 losses in this time have been by 1 score. A team that is consistently in the mix will eventually have a magical season, why not this year?

Pessimist: Another MAC team that is pretty consistent, but facing a year where they need to replace a ton. Bottom 10 in returning production, as well as breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. That may be asking for too much to break their way.

Ohio

Optimist: After program legend Frank Solich retired they promoted the OC and he won 10 games in 3 out of 4 seasons. The Bobcats are doing the same this year, replacing Tim Albin with his OC to continue this culture of winning they've fostered.

Pessimist: The strength of Ohio these past two seasons has been their defense and they lose a lot of production on that side of the ball. Another team thats likely to be tested by their ability to overcome an 0-3 start as they open with Rutgers, WVU, and Ohio State.

Toledo

Optimist: Jason Candle is a P4 coach that just seems to be enjoying life kicking ass in the MAC, and this year should be no different. The betting favorite to win the conference has a legit path to the playoffs if they can take out Kentucky week 1.

Pessimist: An SEC team and the traditionally explosive Hilltoppers are a tough 1-2 punch to start with for a defense that loses 3 of its top 4 tacklers. Road games at Miami (OH) and Washington State will also give this team all they can handle.

Western Michigan

Optimist: The Broncos before Lance Taylor took over: 119th in scoring offense. Year 1 of his tenure they were 91st and year 2 they were 58th. A lot of experience coaching offense at the NFL and P4 levels, its not crazy to expect another leap in year 3.

Pessimist: At #132 in returning offense this coaching staff will be tested to see if they can rebuild the offense in just 1 offseason. The way their schedule shakes out also likely requires pulling off an upset at some point just to make a bowl game.

Mountain West Conference

Air Force

Optimist: The top 5 rushers outside of the QB position from last years team return, and considering they were #125 in scoring offense last season maybe not returning the QB is a good thing. They had a top 50 defense last year, with an improved offense a bounce back is inevitable.

Pessimist: Contuinity at the academies is huge and the Falcons will need to break in another quarterback this season. Even if its an improvement there will be a learning curve. Advanced metrics hate them, FPI predicting them to be a bottom 10 team in all of the FBS this season.

Boise State

Optimist: If they win every game they are favored in they probably make the playoffs. Hard to ask for more than that. They have the best quarterback, coach, and defense in the conference. Bet against them if you dare.

Pessimist: 30% of their total offense last year was Jeanty rushing yards...AFTER CONTACT. Also Braxton Fely mentioned he entered the portal because there wasn't enough experience around him on the dline, which could be seen as a bad omen for Broncos fans.

Colorado State

Optimist: The Rams win total each season under Jay Norvell: 3 -> 5 -> 8. The rebuild is done, now its time to compete for a conference title. You return your star QB and a RB who had 800 scrimmage yards last season to lead the way.

Pessimist: The top 3 teams in the Mountain West in Boise, Fresno, and UNLV all get a crack at this squad. Washington State, UTSA, and Washington are no picnic out of conference either. Its just as likely they're fighting for 6 wins as they are a conference championship.

Fresno State

Optimist: Fresno hasn't had a QB throw for 400 yards since September of 2021. New QB EJ Warner has flown under the radar at Temple and Rice, but in that time has thrown over 400 yards five times. A true gunslinger who will give them a chance in every game they play.

Pessimist: Entz will be the 4th coach this team has had in 5 years. That kind of turnover kills player development with different staffs trying to mold players differently every year. The depth could pay the price for that this season.

Hawai'i

Optimist: Timmy Chang's team has improved each season under his tenure. The 21st ranked defense in returning production paired with the best wide receiver core in the conference makes this a dark horse team this season.

Pessimist: Nothing on this roster inspires hope at the QB position, and they aren't going anywhere if they can't figure that out. 5 wins last year is deceiving, as 2 of those came against FCS opponents.

Nevada

Optimist: Six of last seasons losses were by just 1 score in Jeff Choate's first season. His teams improved every year at Montana State, and we bet that the same will happen in Reno. Chubba Purdy was the #10 dual threat QB in his class, if he stays healthy a bowl is in play.

Pessimist: They've lost 10 games each of the last 3 seasons. They pull Boise, Fresno, UNLV, and San Jose State in conference and open @Penn State. Lets just hope they can stay bought in when getting blown out throughout the year.

New Mexico

Optimist: According to 247, this team brought in the #2 portal class in the conference. New coach Jason Eck took over an Idaho team coming off 5 straight losing seasons and won 7, 9, and 10 games in his 3 years there.

Pessimist: This will be the 3rd coach in 3 years, not a good sign for a strong foundation to build year 1 on. The last time they had a winning season Trump was yet to be inaugurated. For his first term.

San Diego State

Optimist: The Aztecs have secured a top 3 recruiting class in conference each of the last 4 seasons. Head coach Sean Lewis is a scheme guru, it's not a reach to think the win total could soar in year 2 of his campaign.

Pessimist: Sean Lewis is 27-40 over 6 seasons, and in year 1 here put up the worst record at the school since 2008. They had the #116 scoring offense last season, a major red flag for what should be the coaches specialty.

San Jose State

Optimist: They have bowled for 3 years in a row now, their longest stretch ever. They are 3rd in the Mountain West in returning production and have as good of a coach as you can get at this level. Coach Ken has more career bowl wins in 17 years than the school does in 76.

Pessimist: The returning QB threw for 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year, while having arguably the best receiver in the country. The offense could be in for a step back without Nick Nash leading the way.

UNLV

Optimist: Coming off their best seasons ever, the Rebels are bringing in the #2 portal class in all of the G5. But more importantly, one of the best offensive minds in history is now their coach. Mullen had Mississippi State ranked #1 for a month, he could terrorize the G5.

Pessimist: #132 nationally in returning production with a coach who has been on TV for the entirety of the portal era. There is a chance the team starts slow as Mullen acclimates himself to the new college game.

Utah State

Optimist: New coach Bronco Mendenhall is a legend in the state and a hell of a coach, leading BYU to 5 double digit win seasons. In his 1 year at New Mexico he gave them their best season in 8 years. The floor for this team with Bronco will be a bowl game.

Pessimist: They have had a bottom 10 defense nationally for back to back years now. It can be hard to rebuild that side of the ball quickly, especially with a roster that isn't that talented. It may take a few years for this tenure to really get going.

Wyoming

Optimist: Last year's team lost 4 games by less than a touchdown while sporting a bottom 10 scoring offense. However in the 3 games this year's QB threw for 20+ passes they averaged an extra 10 points per game. He could build on that and take this team to a bowl.

Pessimist: Bohl had taken the Cowboys to 6+ wins each of the last 8 years, except for the covid year. In just 1 season the new coach Sawvel ruined that standard and went 3-9. Its hard to win here, and it looks like they found a coach whose not up to the task.

Sun Belt Conference

App State

Optimist: New coach Dowell Loggains was the OC for South Carolina, leading them to the 3rd best rushing offense in the SEC. When, not if, he turns around the run game here it should help the Mountaineers get back to complimentary football that puts tallies in the win column.

Pessimist: Your 2 worst seasons since joining the FBS have been in the last 3 years. FPI and SP+ both rank the Mountaineers as the #98 team in the country, a far cry from what these fans are used to. They have taken a clear step back once NIL became a factor.

Arkansas State

Optimist: Butch Jones has increased his win total here for 3 years in a row now. And he gets Jaylen Raynor back for his 3rd season as starting QB. This kind of continuity isn't common at this level, and we expect it to pay dividends this season.

Pessimist: ESPN's FPI projects the Red Wolves to be underdogs in 7 games this season, and they are bottom 10 nationally in returning production on defense. A recipe for a step back if they don't get the bounces to go their way.

Coastal Carolina

Optimist: Coming off 5 straight Bowl games, they are 4th in the conference in returning production. In 2024 they had the #1 high school recruiting class in the conference as well, if some of those players can contribute this year they may take the next step under Tim Beck.

Pessimist: For 3 years in a row now they have won fewer games than the year before. An out of conference slate of Virginia, ECU, and South Carolina could make this season require some uphill sledding just to make their way to a bowl game.

Georgia Southern

Optimist: The Eagles took a step forward in Clay Helton's 3rd year, going 6-2 in conference. With a wide open Sun Belt this season, they are just as capable as anyone to win the conference. They are 48th in returning production, perhaps a dark horse for the G5 playoff bid?

Pessimist: A tough schedule break. App, JMU, defending champs Marshall, Ark St, USC, and Fresno are all road trips this year. They could improve and still move backwards in the in column.

Georgia State

Optimist: They picked up 2 SEC running backs in the portal with Amos and Robinson. Already the #38 passing offense last year, if the run game can take the expected leap forward this year this offense could sneak up on people. A bowl game isn't out of the question.

Pessimist: Ole Miss, Memphis, and Vanderbilt is a brutal non conference slate for a Sun Belt team coming off a 3 win season. 3 blowouts before starting conference play with James Madison could zap a lot of fan's excitement for the season.

James Madison

Optimist: Bob Chesney's year 1 saw the team post a top 30 scoring offense and defense. Now they have the #2 portal class in the conference and are #55 in returning production. The conference title favorite and a clear contender for a playoff bid this year.

Pessimist: A 4-4 Sun Belt record last season makes us a little nervous this could be a paper tiger. With road trips to Louisville, Liberty, and Texas State it won't be an easy path to glory. A 'good' season, but nowhere near the playoffs feels likely.

Louisiana

Optimist: Last year they went 10-2 in the regular season, with both losses coming by 1 score. That was their 4th double digit win season in the last 6, across two different coaches. Outside of a road trip to Mizzou, every game on this schedule feels winnable.

Pessimist: The Rajin Cajuns are #117 in returning production with the #13 portal class in the conference. The advanced metrics in love with this team are giving them too much credit for what players no longer here have accomplished.

Louisiana Monroe

Optimist: They started last year 5-1 before the wheels fell off due to a lack of depth on this underfunded roster. #1 in the conference in returning production, that should be improved. A bowl drought over a decade long may finally come to a close this year.

Pessimist: FPI has them as the worst in the conference while SP+ has them next to last. The football coach is now working double duty as the interim AD, we don't believe in multi tasking. Less time for the team will mean less wins for the team.

Marshall

Optimist: This program has qualified for a bowl in 11 of the past 12 years. A few year coach leaving is a speed bump, not a road block. New coach Tony Gibson posted 3 top 25 scoring defenses in the last 4 years at NC State. Slowing down Sun Belt offenses will be a breeze.

Pessimist: Dead last nationally in returning production, 56 incoming transfers, and a first time head coach. If you wanted to kill all the momentum of winning a conference championship you're doing a great job. This could get ugly.

Old Dominion

Optimist: You've had the same coach for 5 years, ESPN's FPI ranks you as the #3 team in the conference, and you get the best LB in the G5 Jason Henderson back from injury. Dodging Louisiana, South Alabama, and Texas State in conference helps too.

Pessimist: The worst portal class in the conference lowers your ceiling a bit. A coach whose never had a winning record in 4 seasons lowers it even more. FPI having them 3rd in the conference just shows how weak the conference is, not how good the Monarchs are.

South Alabama

Optimist: In Major Applewhite's 3 seasons as coach in he's never won fewer than 7 games. Year 1 here they had a top 20 scoring offense in the country, if his system takes another step forward this year they could absolutely win the wide open Sun Belt.

Pessimist: Tulane, Auburn, and @North Texas is a pretty rough out of conference slate for a Sun Belt team. Losing Fluff Bothwell and a 1000 yard receiver could make this a scramble just to make a bowl game.

Southern Miss

Optimist: Nobody is higher on this team than us. You snag the coach who won this conference last year, and cut and paste enough of that roster you have the #1 portal class in the conference. Every game on the schedule is winnable.

Pessimist: Vegas still has this as a middle of the pack team in the conference. With 69 new players on the roster, even if the ceiling is high and the coach is good it could take a while for things to come together.

Texas State

Optimist: The fact they were able to hold onto Kinne after he posted the best 2 years in program history his first 2 years is a testament to how far this program has come. We'd be shocked if this team wasn't bowling again with another top 25 offense.

Pessimist: Kinne has yet to win 3 FBS games in a row, and now his team is #120 in returning production. Even if he hits on his 3rd different QB in 3 different years, it could be possible this program has hit its ceiling under his leadership.

Troy

Optimist: After a slow start they ended the season 3-1 last year. This year you dodge the top 2 teams in the conference in James Madison and Georgia Southern, making a rebound to a bowl game an entirely reasonable expectation.

Pessimist: Gerard Parker inherited a team that posted back to back 11 win seasons, and posted a 4-8 year. This team is moving in the wrong direction and could be on hot seat watch if they start the season 1-3, which appears likely.

Article Info

Published

August 19, 2025

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