Charlotte over 2.5 wins: Last year Charlotte won 5 games with Biff Poggi as head coach. Before taking the job he had 3 years of college football assistant experience in the last 4 decades. Now enter Tim Albin, a guy who’s fresh off three straight 10 win seasons at Ohio. He's not just packing his underwear, he's bringing 4 of his Ohio players with him along with 14 transfers from P5 schools. One win’s a gimme vs. FCS Monmouth. Then they have 5 other games against teams ranked 96th or worse in ESPN's FPI. I'm not saying they'll be a good team. I'm saying Albin is a good enough coach to go 3-9 against this schedule.

Tulane under 8.5 wins: Sure last years team won 9 games. Then their starting QB, star RB, and 10 other key contributors transferred up to P5 schools faster than you can say 'NIL'. They are 76th in returning production with 53 new players on the roster. Already an inconsistent defense, they let up 33 points or more 7 times last year. And their schedule? Brutal. Three P5 teams in a four week stretch to start the year, plus five other bowl-winning teams with returning coaches, and zero time for guys to gel. This team smells like 7-5 or 8-4.

Louisiana Tech over 5.5 wins: They won 5 games last year with a freshman QB who had a clean 14-3 TD-to-INT ratio. Now he's back, and the schedule’s basically a buffet of bottom feeders. You've got the FCS freebie, then four games against teams in the bottom 10 of ESPN's preseason FPI. That’s five right there. Need one more? You've got shots at Sam Houston and Missouri State. Go get it, Sonny Cumbie.

Jacksonville State under 6.5 wins: In the 3 years before Rich Rod they won less than 6.5 twice, AT THE FCS LEVEL. Now he's gone and taken his best players with him. They open at UCF, then you play the class of the conference Liberty, then travel to Georgia Southern (8 wins, 3 straight bowls). After an FCS breather it’s off to Southern Miss, who just raided the Sun Belt with new coach Charles Huff. This is a rebuild, not a reload. Feels like 5 wins tops.

Miami over 6.5 wins: Miami has hit 7+ wins in 4 of their last 5 full seasons. The one miss? They still got to 6. They have continuity and a culture with a coach entering his 12th season. Most metrics have them as a top 3 team in the MAC this year. Lock in the FCS win and then go 6-2 in the MAC, which would be their worst conference record in 3 seasons. This one's meat and potatoes.

UMass under 4.5 wins: They have played 13 seasons at the FBS level, and not once have they gone over 4.5 wins. This line makes no sense to me. Maybe the thought is moving from an Independent schedule to the MAC should make things easier? But in the last 4 years they have gone up against a MAC opponent 13 times and are 0-13 in those games. Take the under. Laugh in November. Tip your waiter.

Boise State over 9.5 wins: If South Florida is the third toughest game on your schedule (according to FPI), you’re probably in good shape. The only two tougher games are Notre Dame (loss, fine) and UNLV (more on them later). Ashton Jeanty leaving hurts, but Boise could be handing off to Ashton Kutcher and still win 10 with the talent on this roster.

UNLV under 8.5 wins: Dan Mullen is a smart football mind, sure. But the man hasn’t coached a game since 2021. He’s spent the last three years on TV while the rest of college football was getting acclimated to the grind of NIL and the transfer portal. Now he’s jumping in cold and supposed to win 9 games at UNLV? A school that’s hit that number twice in the last 40 years? Good luck with that.

Southern Miss over 4.5: Charles Huff didn’t just win the Sun Belt last year, he dominated it. Now he takes over Southern Miss and brings 21 players from that championship roster with him. Add in 16 Power 5 transfers, and he’s not inheriting a program, he’s transplanting a squad. Huff’s worst season in four years as a head coach? Six wins. Don’t overthink this one.

Coastal Carolina under 5.5: No Jamey Chadwell, no confidence. Coastal’s only gone over this number once without him. And that once was barely scraping by with Tim Beck last season. This year, only 54% of production returns. And the schedule is littered with teams more talented than them. Virginia, ECU, South Carolina, James Madison, South Alabama, and Georgia Southern. Then throw in App State and Marshall, who are just waiting to knock them off. This could get ugly fast.